Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01b7…766a crypto 192 markets active 11h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9,334 (-37%) realized −$9,334 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%82W / 110L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,847
7 days−$10,934
14 days−$8,692
30 days−$8,665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$10,825
other 31% +$2,166
crypto 12% −$142
sports 2% −$49
weather 2% −$289
politics 1% −$193
finance 1% −$193
culture 0% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -43.7% -49.1% 31% 31% -95.8%
≤30d 22 -24.4% -31.6% 45% 36% -47.8%
≤90d 57 -22.5% -29.9% 37% 32% -47.1%
all 192 -12.0% -20.3% 43% 39% -43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 39% -43.5%
10% -28.0% 35% -48.9%
15% -34.9% 31% -53.8%
20% -41.3% 26% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$125 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses82 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage105d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $807 −$807 -100%
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Jun 17 $183 +$35 +19%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$18 -87%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$14 +75%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$40 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$347 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2,000 +$90 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $509 −$196 -38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6,055 +$2,000 +33%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $51 +$21 +41%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 23 $71 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17? May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 17 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 17 $13 −$12 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 17 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? May 14 $50 +$213 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 01 $30 −$29 -97%
Yokkaichi: Yasutaka Uchiyama vs Hayato Matsuoka Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Wizards vs. Warriors Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers Mar 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 29 $14 +$21 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$25 +254%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. LSU Tigers (W) Mar 28 $10 +$23 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $87 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 2d
5kt meteor strike in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $107 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 41¢ $102 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $51 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $76 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $32 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 5d
5kt meteor strike in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $111 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $700 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $10,000 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 89¢ $2,090 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 25¢ $314 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $2,000 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 468 history records