Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x01b8…82c1
sports · 236 markets active 7h ago
0.0score
+$4,652 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,097 · open +$555
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,863
Realized+$4,097
Unrealized+$555
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses104 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$830
Open positions21
Markets (closed)395 / 236
History coverage39d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 21 History 395 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,400
7 days−$1,231
14 days−$11,988
30 days−$742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 30¢ $373 $1,178 +$805 (+215%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $150 $997 +$847 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 15¢ $150 $577 +$426 (+284%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $150 $528 +$377 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $150 $293 +$143 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $150 $137 −$14 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $150 $84 −$67 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $150 $33 −$117 (-78%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $10 −$141 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $5 −$72 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $220 −$302 -137%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $339 −$339 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 10? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 10? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$14,186
sports 49% +$3,176
weather 1% −$41
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $101 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 52¢ $154 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 58¢ $172 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 58¢ $155 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $200 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $114 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 43¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 43¢ $27 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 43¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 43¢ $56 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 30¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 30¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 8¢ $28 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $33 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 85¢ $510 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 80¢ $228 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 80¢ $252 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 74¢ $296 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 55¢ $55 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $196 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $235 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $43 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $28 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $50 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $65 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 74¢ $31 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 74¢ $6 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $336 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 63¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -58.3% -62.3% 9% 6% -43.0%
≤30d 308 -35.0% -41.1% 19% 15% -22.5%
≤90d 395 -21.9% -29.3% 26% 18% -13.3%
all 395 -21.9% -29.3% 26% 18% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 18% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 14% -21.6%
15% -42.2% 10% -29.1%
20% -47.9% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,863.07 · official $3,867.37 (match) · 2005 history records