Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

01 0x01bc…dbe4 world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$1,498 (+68%) realized +$1,421 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip

Net edge+48%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$129per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$43

7 days+$43

14 days+$43

30 days+$43

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+47.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+38.4%	+25.2%	33%	33%	-4.6%
≤30d	3	+38.4%	+25.2%	33%	33%	-4.6%
≤90d	15	+63.0%	+47.5%	53%	47%	+54.4%
all	15	+63.0%	+47.5%	53%	47%	+54.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+47.5%	47%	+54.4%
10%	+33.4%	47%	+39.6%
15%	+20.5%	47%	+26.2%
20%	+8.7%	33%	+13.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 67% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +63% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +114% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$232 vs −$63 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage

Net worth$185

Realized+$1,421

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage104d

Avg bet$129

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	29¢	30¢	$170	$179	+$9 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-38%)
Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	11¢	0¢	$154	$0	−$154 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Jun 14	$196	−$26	-13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Jun 14	$499	−$52	-10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 14	$87	+$120	+139%
Lakers vs. Thunder	May 03	$158	−$154	-97%
Lakers vs. Rockets	May 02	$197	+$288	+146%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22?	Apr 23	$98	−$98	-100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-19?	Apr 19	$133	+$56	+42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?	Apr 19	$94	+$39	+41%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 19	$40	−$40	-100%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels	Apr 19	$110	−$59	-54%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 19	$25	+$24	+97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 19	$31	+$74	+238%
BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton	Apr 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-12?	Apr 13	$175	+$1,247	+713%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Apr 12	$162	+$13	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	BUY Yes	29¢	$170	57m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL Yes	36¢	$170	58m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY Yes	42¢	$196	1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL Yes	6¢	$196	1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$199	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$207	1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Team Falcons	41¢	$87	2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL Yes	6¢	$90	2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$100	8d
Lakers vs. Thunder	BUY Lakers	11¢	$158	42d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	40¢	$3	44d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	40¢	$193	44d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	40¢	$1	44d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22?	BUY No	18¢	$98	53d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-19?	SELL Yes	62¢	$188	56d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-19?	BUY Yes	43¢	$133	56d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$133	56d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?	BUY Yes	70¢	$94	56d
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels	BUY Los Angeles Angels	42¢	$60	56d
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels	SELL San Diego Padres	53¢	$51	56d
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels	BUY San Diego Padres	51¢	$50	56d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	29¢	$31	57d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	50¢	$25	57d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	44¢	$40	57d
BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton	BUY Emilio Nava	26¢	$10	62d
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,422	63d
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-12?	BUY Yes	12¢	$175	63d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL No	82¢	$175	63d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY No	76¢	$162	64d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.04 · official $185.04 (match) · 90 history records