Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

01 0x01be…543b other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$134 (+7%) realized +$214 · open −$80

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%4W / 11L

Drawdown97%max

Avg bet$94per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$1,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-16.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-7.7%	-16.4%	27%	27%	+0.2%
≤30d	15	-7.7%	-16.4%	27%	27%	+0.2%
≤90d	15	-7.7%	-16.4%	27%	27%	+0.2%
all	15	-7.7%	-16.4%	27%	27%	+0.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.4%	27%	+0.2%
10%	-24.4%	27%	-9.4%
15%	-31.7%	27%	-18.1%
20%	-38.4%	27%	-26.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$136 vs −$42 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.17 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1,027

Realized+$214

Unrealized−$80

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses4 / 11

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage5d

Avg bet$94

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown97%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$580	$586	+$6 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	38¢	38¢	$435	$441	+$6 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	No	48¢	0¢	$48	$0	−$48 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	45¢	0¢	$45	$0	−$45 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$42	+$58	+140%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$9	−$9	-98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$41	−$40	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$20	+$90	+442%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$40	−$40	-99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$38	−$37	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$17	−$16	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$91	−$90	-98%
Spread: France (-3.5)	Jun 22	$54	−$54	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	−$99	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$99	+$195	+197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$98	+$202	+206%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$50	−$49	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	48¢	$49	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	45¢	$45	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	18¢	$9	14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	30¢	$31	14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$42	14h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	20¢	$413	14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	37¢	$41	25h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	57¢	$40	35h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	34¢	$38	35h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	18¢	$20	38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	15¢	$17	38h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	45¢	$91	2d
Spread: France (-3.5)	BUY France	34¢	$51	2d
Spread: France (-3.5)	BUY France	34¢	$4	2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	38¢	$231	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	33¢	$101	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	33¢	$99	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	32¢	$98	3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	49¢	$50	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	63¢	$1	3d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	18¢	$147	5d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	38¢	$137	5d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	38¢	$78	5d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	18¢	$38	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	40¢	$2	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,026.95 · official $1,026.95 (match) · 35 history records