Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x01be…f3a9 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,430 (+13%) realized +$1,430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate100%21W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1,387
30 days+$1,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,050
sports 42% +$352
politics 5% +$1
tech 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +20.3% +8.9% 100% 38% +16.2%
≤90d 18 +9.1% -1.2% 100% 17% +3.7%
all 21 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 14% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 14% +1.9%
10% -11.8% 14% -7.9%
15% -20.3% 14% -16.8%
20% -28.1% 10% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$524) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses21 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage108d
Avg bet$529
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $614 +$1 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $612 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,220 +$695 +57%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $875 +$347 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $531 +$344 +65%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $520 +$4 +1%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 11 $190 $0 +0%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l Jun 11 $335 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $520 +$1 +0%
Uber # of trips above 4.6B in Q1? May 10 $500 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April? May 02 $225 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 02 $300 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $3.00? Apr 25 $524 +$1 +0%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 13 $524 +$1 +0%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $523 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 09 $523 +$1 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 04 $518 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31? Apr 01 $517 +$1 +0%
Raptors vs. Jazz Mar 25 $517 +$1 +0%
Hawks vs. Mavericks Mar 19 $516 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $130? Mar 14 $516 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $614 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $612 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,220 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $875 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $531 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $520 14d
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY No 100¢ $190 31d
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l BUY No 100¢ $335 31d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $520 45d
Uber # of trips above 4.6B in Q1? BUY No 100¢ $500 53d
Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April? BUY No 100¢ $225 61d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $300 61d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $3.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $524 67d
Hornets vs. Knicks BUY Hornets 100¢ $524 76d
Suns vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 100¢ $523 77d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 100¢ $523 80d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 99¢ $518 85d
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $517 93d
Raptors vs. Jazz BUY Raptors 100¢ $517 95d
Hawks vs. Mavericks BUY Hawks 100¢ $516 100d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $130? BUY No 100¢ $516 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records