Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01c0…7c8e crypto 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,267 (-12%) realized −$4,267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%110W / 148L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$243
14 days+$165
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +20.6% +9.1% 63% 63% +5.0%
≤30d 62 +5.0% -5.0% 55% 55% -7.4%
≤90d 258 -15.3% -23.4% 43% 42% -24.9%
all 258 -15.3% -23.4% 43% 42% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 42% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 42% -32.1%
15% -37.4% 42% -38.6%
20% -43.6% 37% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$116 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses110 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage73d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET Jun 27 $58 +$52 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$55 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$53 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$13 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Jun 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 25 $60 +$56 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$52 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$49 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $56 +$51 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$55 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $58 +$51 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $54 +$50 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $57 +$53 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$53 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$48 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$49 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$52 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $59 +$55 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$52 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$52 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$50 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $57 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $48 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $57 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1784 history records