trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 20 | +13.2% | +2.4% | 50% | 30% | -5.3% |
| ≤30d | 35 | +17.9% | +6.7% | 46% | 29% | -5.4% |
| ≤90d | 49 | +14.0% | +3.2% | 57% | 24% | -5.3% |
| all | 114 | +14.5% | +3.6% | 64% | 33% | -6.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.6% | 33% | -6.6% |
| 10% | -6.3% | 16% | -15.6% |
| 15% | -15.3% | 10% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -23.6% | 7% | -31.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 77¢ | 78¢ | $38 | $39 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-16%) |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 10¢ | 8¢ | $12 | $10 | −$2 (-15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $101 | +$21 | +21% |
| Spread: Japan (-1.5) | Jun 21 | $10 | +$4 | +42% |
| Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $5 | +$4 | +86% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $10 | −$4 | -40% |
| Spread: United States (-2.5) | Jun 19 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I | Jun 19 | $16 | −$6 | -35% |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $200 | +$4 | +2% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $21 | −$6 | -31% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 17 | $48 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$5 | -48% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $402 | +$57 | +14% |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $21 | −$3 | -14% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | +$8 | +152% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $100 | +$5 | +5% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$3 | -68% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 14 | $5 | +$5 | +93% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$3 | +34% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$3 | -58% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$21 | +414% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $200 | −$2 | -1% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $116 | +$23 | +20% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $20 | +$1 | +7% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $13 | −$2 | -17% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $34 | −$10 | -29% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $15 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 30 | $30 | −$2 | -7% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 26 | $40 | −$4 | -10% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 25 | $5 | +$6 | +119% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 25 | $42 | −$4 | -10% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 14 | $7 | −$1 | -15% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals | May 05 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | May 05 | $80 | +$3 | +3% |
| Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Apr 21 | $12 | +$3 | +25% |
| Jazz vs. Lakers | Apr 14 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Apr 02 | $8 | $0 | -6% |
| Hornets vs. Nets | Apr 01 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Knicks vs. Thunder | Mar 31 | $20 | +$2 | +9% |
| Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats | Mar 29 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Kings vs. Hawks | Mar 29 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Pelicans vs. Raptors | Mar 29 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| Raptors vs. Jazz | Mar 29 | $28 | +$2 | +9% |
| Wizards vs. Jazz | Mar 29 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Magic vs. Hornets | Mar 24 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Mar 19 | $1 | +$7 | +700% |