Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01c5…66fc world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%25W / 29L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$4
other 29% +$1
sports 7% $0
politics 5% +$5
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 +1.8% -7.9% 30% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 20 +1.8% -7.9% 30% 5% -10.3%
all 54 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 4% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses25 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $7 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $58 −$5 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 24 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hwang Kyo-ahn win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 10 $14 $0 +2%
ChatGPT #1 app May 9? May 08 $15 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $14 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $14 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $30 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $30 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $27 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $27 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 14d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 139 history records