Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01c8…a24a sports 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$824 (-6%) realized −$774 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate82%113W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$958
14 days−$894
30 days−$894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$954
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -3.8% -13.0% 81% 31% -16.7%
≤30d 138 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 30% -15.8%
≤90d 138 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 30% -15.8%
all 138 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 30% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 30% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 9% -23.9%
15% -28.4% 5% -31.2%
20% -35.4% 2% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$81 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$774
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses113 / 25
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage7d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 95¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $50 +$9 +18%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $203 +$25 +12%
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Sakkari Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $120 +$1 +0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$8 +17%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $66 +$7 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $50 +$7 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $101 +$15 +15%
Set 1 Winner: Vekic vs Raducanu Jun 14 $30 +$4 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $67 +$7 +10%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $51 +$11 +21%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $154 −$1 -1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $51 +$4 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $47 +$2 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $50 +$15 +31%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 172.5 Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $60 +$5 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $50 +$9 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $129 +$5 +4%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $19 +$4 +20%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $15 +$6 +40%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $183 +$6 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $50 +$15 +30%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Katerina Siniakova 100¢ $54 4m
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 92¢ $50 20m
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $59 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 100¢ $53 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 95¢ $50 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ $51 1h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 84¢ $50 2h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 95¢ $50 2h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 59¢ $51 2h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $102 2h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 98¢ $100 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $50 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $58 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $50 20h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $52 22h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $52 22h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 96¢ $50 23h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 96¢ $50 23h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 94¢ $50 24h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 61¢ $55 25h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 55¢ $51 25h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 41¢ $58 25h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 35¢ $51 25h
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Sakkari SELL Sakkari 100¢ $101 26h
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Sakkari BUY Sakkari 99¢ $100 26h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $53 26h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 94¢ $50 26h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Maria Sakkari 49¢ $62 26h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 39¢ $51 27h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 99¢ $53 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.26 (match) · 335 history records