Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
01 0x01c9…4386 sports 811 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25,331 (-8%) realized −$25,340 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%344W / 462L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$2,061est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$924
7 days+$880
14 days+$880
30 days+$873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$8,982
other 31% −$4,797
world 1% −$589
crypto 0% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 50% +4.3%
≤30d 23 +13.2% +2.5% 48% 48% +4.2%
≤90d 376 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 38% -16.6%
all 806 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 40% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 37% -21.7%
15% -25.8% 33% -29.3%
20% -33.1% 26% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$190 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized−$25,340
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses344 / 462
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2,061
Open positions5
Markets (closed)806 / 811
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$407
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $198 $203 +$5 (+3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $197 $202 +$5 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $647 +$568 +88%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $202 −$174 -86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $404 +$191 +47%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $49 +$139 +281%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $95 −$14 -15%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $358 +$232 +65%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $387 +$202 +52%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $103 −$78 -76%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $586 −$120 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $507 +$78 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $582 −$75 -13%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $156 −$85 -54%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$72 +71%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$77 -76%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $252 +$66 +26%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $359 +$123 +34%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $300 +$193 +64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $174 −$174 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$126 +249%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $284 −$284 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $74 +$212 +287%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 21 $557 −$283 -51%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $379 +$10 +3%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $400 −$53 -13%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $1,150 −$991 -86%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $352 −$348 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $125 −$51 -41%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $102 −$38 -37%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $101 +$248 +246%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $100 −$7 -7%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? Apr 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $398 +$304 +76%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $150 +$215 +144%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 20 $100 +$134 +134%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $98 +$168 +171%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $350 −$287 -82%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $625 +$22 +4%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $200 +$137 +68%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 20 $950 −$338 -36%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $150 −$13 -9%
Will SC Braga vs. FC Famalicão end in a draw? Apr 19 $17 +$88 +509%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $150 +$129 +86%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $15 −$10 -66%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $150 −$19 -12%
Will CA Aldosivi vs. Racing Club end in a draw? Apr 19 $50 +$125 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $201 26m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 28m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,215 32m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $143 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $150 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 9¢ $28 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $202 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $595 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $188 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $49 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.91 · official $703.95 (match) · 3500 history records