Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x01d0…43b0 sports 21 markets active 10h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$628 (+50%) realized +$628 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$619
other 42% −$2
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +41.1% +27.7% 57% 57% +46.6%
≤30d 14 +41.1% +27.7% 57% 57% +46.6%
≤90d 14 +41.1% +27.7% 57% 57% +46.6%
all 14 +41.1% +27.7% 57% 57% +46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.7% 57% +46.6%
10% +15.5% 57% +32.6%
15% +4.3% 57% +19.8%
20% -5.9% 57% +8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$36 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$628
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $149 +$139 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $243 +$197 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $10 +$22 +216%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $81 +$57 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $201 +$220 +109%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $10 +$21 +206%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end BUY 19¢ $32 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $98 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026 BUY 16¢ $44 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $182 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 18¢ $39 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14 BUY 9¢ $40 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $10 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY 8¢ $30 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 14¢ $59 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026 BUY 11¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $61 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 34h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 34h
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $81 34h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $120 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records