Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x01d1…12a4
world · 58 markets active 12h ago
0.5score
+$81,104 +55%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$82,356 · open −$1,739
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge
Chart Positions 3 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$635
7 days+$36,360
14 days+$36,360
30 days+$74,384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $1,493 $1,032 −$460 (-31%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 25¢ $1,649 $369 −$1,279 (-78%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Yes $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Yes 15¢ $635 $0 −$635 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $635 −$635 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $8,509 +$25,873 +304%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $3,240 +$9,939 +307%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $500 +$1,182 +236%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $200 +$1,133 +567%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $4,502 +$3,784 +84%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $5,506 +$19,721 +358%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $6,660 −$5,314 -80%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $880 −$377 -43%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 23 $535 −$19 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $1,300 −$113 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1,383 +$128 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $2,177 −$1,579 -72%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $13,503 +$27,358 +203%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $16,049 −$5,191 -32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $1,911 −$858 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $843 −$648 -77%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $4,669 −$2,435 -52%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $3,362 +$156 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $500 −$104 -21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 05 $950 −$54 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $980 +$8 +1%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $4,360 −$2,054 -47%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Apr 17 $1,400 −$561 -40%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $3,500 −$2,094 -60%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 13 $40 +$17 +43%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $500 −$55 -11%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $7,633 +$6,528 +86%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $1,910 −$1,607 -84%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $1,067 −$8 -1%
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? Apr 06 $60 −$60 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Apr 01 $400 −$400 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Apr 01 $734 −$734 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Mar 25 $511 −$361 -70%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 09 $500 −$121 -24%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $6,478 −$768 -12%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $5,000 −$518 -10%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $3,079 +$17,364 +564%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $1,268 +$3,687 +291%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $13,342 −$2,953 -22%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 17 $484 −$54 -11%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 16 $100 −$16 -16%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $301 −$48 -16%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 07 $40 −$28 -71%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $100 −$40 -40%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 01 $878 −$29 -3%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 01 $3,583 −$2,436 -68%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 29 $175 −$136 -77%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $2,775 −$412 -15%
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? Dec 19 $1,129 −$1,070 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 96% +$83,711
other 4% −$2,258
politics 1% −$794
finance 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 12h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 12h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $179 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $240 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $33 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $152 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $288 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +186.8% +159.5% 75% 75% +245.8%
≤30d 17 +93.1% +74.7% 47% 41% +89.9%
≤90d 34 +30.2% +17.8% 35% 26% +54.2%
all 55 +23.1% +11.4% 25% 20% +42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.4% 20% +42.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.7% 20% +29.3%
15% -9.0% 20% +16.8%
20% -17.9% 18% +5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,418.15 · official $1,418.15 (match) · 774 history records