Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x01d2…c603
politics · 280 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses85 / 176
Open positions19
Markets (closed)261 / 280
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day768.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 19 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebe Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $16 $0 -1%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% $0
other 24% −$1
culture 8% +$3
economics 7% $0
world 7% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 34m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 34m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? BUY No 100¢ $2 35m
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 35m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 35m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 35m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 36m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $0 36m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? SELL No 100¢ $1 36m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $0 36m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 36m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 99¢ $1 36m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 36m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 36m
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebe SELL No 100¢ $1 36m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 36m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 36m
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 36m
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 36m
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebe SELL No 100¢ $2 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 99¢ $1 43m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 43m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 44m
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 44m
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 44m
Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebe BUY No 100¢ $2 44m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $2 44m
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 44m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $2 44m
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 2% -9.5%
≤30d 261 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 261 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 2% -9.5%
all 261 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover768.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 2% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.73 · official $11.25 · 3500 history records