Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x01d4…2baa other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$266 (+1%) realized +$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,477per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$952
7 days+$1,738
14 days+$110
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$95
sports 17% +$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.1% +1.5% 100% 40% +0.9%
≤30d 13 +4.0% -5.9% 85% 38% -9.0%
≤90d 13 +4.0% -5.9% 85% 38% -9.0%
all 13 +4.0% -5.9% 85% 38% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 38% -9.0%
10% -14.9% 15% -17.7%
15% -23.1% 8% -25.7%
20% -30.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$886 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,477
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2,739 +$71 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,929 +$808 +42%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,859 +$73 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,606 +$254 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,403 +$203 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,376 +$23 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,299 +$80 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,297 +$3 +0%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $510 +$135 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,074 +$88 +8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $306 −$70 -23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $999 +$144 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,809 −$1,702 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $2,810 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2,739 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $2,737 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,929 45h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $1,859 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,606 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $1,403 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,376 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,299 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,297 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $645 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $510 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,162 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,074 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $236 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $306 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,143 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $999 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1,107 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records