Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01d4…47a7 sports 28 markets active 3d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,777 (-70%) realized −$1,776 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$22
14 days+$76
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,777
politics 8% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +75.0% +58.3% 80% 80% +34.8%
≤30d 22 +48.5% +34.3% 59% 59% +18.3%
≤90d 24 +36.1% +23.1% 54% 54% +14.9%
all 26 +33.8% +21.1% 54% 54% -78.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.1% 54% -78.5%
10% +9.5% 54% -80.6%
15% -1.1% 50% -82.5%
20% -10.8% 38% -84.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +135% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$170 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$1,776
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage101d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $212 $212 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Over 38¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 21 $21 +$10 +48%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 +$4 +285%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 +$5 +108%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$4 +203%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +186%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$6 +400%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $4 +$7 +163%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $4 +$11 +249%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $43 +$16 +38%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +113%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 02 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Suns (-9.5) Mar 13 $160 +$180 +113%
Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5 Mar 12 $2,002 −$2,002 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 67¢ $21 2d
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 26¢ $2 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 49¢ $4 8d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 39¢ $3 9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 10d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 26¢ $2 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 14d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 24¢ $1 16d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 33¢ $2 17d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 20¢ $2 18d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ $2 19d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 20d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 72¢ $16 21d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 28¢ $3 23d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 23d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 24d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 25¢ $2 25d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 27d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $19 28d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $24 28d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 27¢ $2 33d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 34d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 34d
Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2,002 103d
Spread: Suns (-9.5) BUY Suns 47¢ $160 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.98 · official $212.98 (match) · 78 history records