Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01d4…d272 weather 1403 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,390 (-4%) realized −$3,394 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1366W / 2L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day100.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% +$53
sports 34% +$7
tech 4% +$6
politics 2% +$3
culture 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 518 -0.0% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1368 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1368 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 1368 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$34 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,458
Realized−$3,394
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1366 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1368 / 1403
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day100.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffs Fortress 98¢ 100¢ $135 $138 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Serban vs. Sherif: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Jones vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Joint vs Starodubtseva Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Giovannini (-1.5) vs Mazzola (+1.5) Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Frech vs Zhang Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Brockmann vs. Parks: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Brockmann vs. Parks: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5) Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 20m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $69 20m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June BUY No 100¢ $69 22m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $69 24m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 35m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $42 39m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 39m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $42 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 40m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $63 41m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $9 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $19 48m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $41 48m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY Fortress 100¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY Fortress 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Harris (+1.5) BUY Harris 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY Fortress 96¢ $66 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 100¢ $69 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $69 2h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner BUY Fortress 100¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,458.25 · official $2,457.51 (match) · 3500 history records