Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01d9…acd0 weather 816 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (309 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$605 (+2%) realized +$574 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%700W / 10L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day309.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$462
14 days+$1,090
30 days+$1,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (309 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 643 +2.4% -7.3% 99% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 710 +8.7% -1.6% 99% 2% -6.6%
≤90d 710 +8.7% -1.6% 99% 2% -6.6%
all 710 +8.7% -1.6% 99% 2% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover309.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 2% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -15.5%
15% -19.6% 2% -23.7%
20% -27.5% 2% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$36 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$4,146
Realized+$574
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses700 / 10
Open positions106
Markets (closed)710 / 816
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day309.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 106 History 710 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 97¢ 96¢ $95 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? No 96¢ 96¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? No 97¢ 98¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? No 96¢ 97¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? No 97¢ 98¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? No 97¢ 97¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? No 97¢ 97¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 97¢ 96¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? No 96¢ 99¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $77 $79 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 98¢ 92¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 15 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $72 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $145 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $133 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $91 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $89 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $77 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $111 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $17 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $21 36m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $40 36m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $40 36m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $67 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $42 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,146.12 · official $4,152.67 (match) · 3500 history records