Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01df…19b5 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$24 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1
world 36% −$10
sports 10% −$11
politics 7% $0
finance 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 15 -3.4% -12.6% 20% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 15 -3.4% -12.6% 20% 0% -11.8%
all 50 -2.7% -11.9% 28% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -11.2%
10% -20.4% 0% -19.7%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage262d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -24%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $11 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $55 −$9 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $4 $0 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $32 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 24 $15 −$11 -70%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $25 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $23 $0 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $22 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 06 $23 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $2 $0 -10%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $14 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $45 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $46 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $46 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $40 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $44 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $51 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $51 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $46 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $46 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $51 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $48 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.65 · official $3.63 (match) · 232 history records