Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

01 0x01e3…2baf other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$383per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-0.1%	-9.6%	17%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	6	-0.1%	-9.6%	17%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	6	-0.1%	-9.6%	17%	0%	-9.6%
all	6	-0.1%	-9.6%	17%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-18.3%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-26.2%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.32 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$310

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage7d

Avg bet$383

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	99¢	99¢	$310	$310	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16?	Jun 16	$370	+$1	+0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$432	−$1	-0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$361	−$2	-0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$484	−$1	-0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 12	$483	−$1	-0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 11	$241	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	99¢	$310	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$370	25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$432	26h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$432	2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	99¢	$359	2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$361	3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$483	3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$484	4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$482	5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$483	6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$241	6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$241	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.84 · official $309.84 (match) · 19 history records