Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01e4…e925 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 40L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
other 35% +$2
politics 12% $0
tech 8% +$1
crypto 4% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 63 -0.1% -9.6% 37% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage455d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $40 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $20 $0 +3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $2 $0 -7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 22 $5 $0 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 20 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $45 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $45 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $45 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $41 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $22 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $20 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $12 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $29 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $40 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records