Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01e5…56ca world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
other 36% −$14
politics 12% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 16 -1.0% -10.5% 19% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -1.0% -10.5% 19% 6% -10.0%
all 44 -3.8% -13.0% 25% 5% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -11.5%
10% -21.3% 0% -20.0%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage256d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $44 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $44 −$2 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $50 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $11 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $23 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 26 $14 −$7 -49%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $16 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 23 $14 +$2 +11%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 18 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 17 $16 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $32 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $3 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $7 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $20 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $24 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $50 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $50 36h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $51 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $51 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $50 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $50 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.01 · official $32.01 (match) · 162 history records