Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
01 0x01e6…650f crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$36
sports 10% −$60
other 2% +$6
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +31.5% +19.0% 100% 100% +19.0%
≤30d 1 +31.5% +19.0% 100% 100% +19.0%
≤90d 2 -34.3% -40.5% 50% 50% -17.5%
all 26 -5.1% -14.2% 65% 58% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 58% -12.6%
10% -22.4% 23% -21.0%
15% -29.9% 15% -28.6%
20% -36.8% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage153d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 22 $134 +$42 +32%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $30 +$7 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $52 +$9 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 19 $28 +$17 +61%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 11 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 11 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 09 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8? Mar 09 $19 +$4 +20%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $13 +$6 +45%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Mar 04 $31 +$13 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 20 $5 −$2 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $151 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $85 7d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $60 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $62 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19? SELL No 81¢ $37 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19? BUY No 65¢ $30 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? SELL No 99¢ $56 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? BUY No 88¢ $50 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? SELL Yes 38¢ $45 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? SELL No 43¢ $5 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? BUY No 17¢ $2 96d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL Yes 27¢ $35 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? SELL No 45¢ $17 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? BUY No 54¢ $20 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $17 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8? BUY No 56¢ $9 105d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 105d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8? SELL No 38¢ $7 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8? BUY No 58¢ $10 106d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 108d
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand SELL South Africa 15¢ $0 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records