Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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01 0x01e6…e7e0 sports 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127,320 (-13%) realized −$137,730 · open +$10,410
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%100W / 107L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,555per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Fees−$11,875est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$42,814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,235
7 days−$19,445
14 days−$9,651
30 days−$14,764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$74,542
other 11% +$122
world 1% −$11,325
crypto 1% +$5,137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -13.5% -21.8% 48% 46% -14.8%
≤30d 123 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 49% -12.0%
≤90d 207 -10.4% -18.9% 48% 44% -18.5%
all 207 -10.4% -18.9% 48% 44% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 44% -18.5%
10% -26.7% 43% -26.3%
15% ← realistic here -33.8% 39% -33.5%
20% -40.3% 28% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$5,800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,842 vs −$3,507 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$42,814
Realized−$137,730
Unrealized+$10,410
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses100 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$11,875
Open positions3
Markets (closed)207 / 210
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$4,555
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 64¢ 100¢ $9,806 $15,218 +$5,412 (+55%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 66¢ 100¢ $9,570 $14,591 +$5,022 (+52%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 57¢ 57¢ $13,028 $13,004 −$24 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $7,682 +$3,822 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $180 +$88 +49%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5,802 +$6,234 +107%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11,317 +$5,728 +51%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $1,458 −$1,458 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6,379 −$6,379 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7,808 −$7,808 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $4,706 +$2,878 +61%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 21 $153 −$143 -94%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $575 −$210 -36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $18,826 −$12,361 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15,599 +$7,789 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,900 +$2,600 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $8,751 +$4,872 +56%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Jun 20 $5,036 +$2,741 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $8,828 +$6,062 +69%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $4,858 −$4,858 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4,834 −$4,834 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $3,401 −$3,401 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,812 −$2,812 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 20 $4,205 −$4,205 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $4,871 −$4,871 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,760 −$4,760 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $3,974 −$3,974 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $5,215 −$5,215 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6,201 +$299 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $4,345 +$3,888 +90%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $2,960 +$2,047 +69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $3,621 +$4,093 +113%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,189 +$1,248 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $8,869 +$4,027 +45%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7,016 +$2,984 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,000 −$110 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,598 +$1,457 +56%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,152 +$1,902 +88%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $705 +$402 +57%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,923 +$829 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7,020 +$3,980 +57%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,773 +$2,772 +156%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,111 −$1,808 -58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11,325 −$11,325 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15,900 −$15,900 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9,937 +$14,938 +150%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6,569 −$6,569 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,700 −$359 -10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,456 −$3,456 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 60¢ $1,515 12m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 60¢ $1,533 12m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 55¢ $1,386 32m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 55¢ $4,738 37m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 58¢ $1,243 38m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $1,439 43m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $2,850 44m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $1,228 44m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $5,344 48m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $1,708 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $2,392 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 65¢ $320 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $246 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 71¢ $53 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,813.56 · official $43,158.11 (match) · 3500 history records