Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x01ee…c603 world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34 (+11%) realized +$24 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%36W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$6
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$7
politics 23% −$5
other 15% +$4
crypto 8% +$9
economics 2% −$3
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.6% -29.1% 62% 25% -37.1%
≤30d 45 +3.1% -6.7% 62% 33% -10.9%
≤90d 59 +2.2% -7.5% 61% 34% -16.8%
all 59 +2.2% -7.5% 61% 34% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 34% -16.8%
10% -16.4% 27% -24.7%
15% -24.5% 20% -32.0%
20% -31.9% 17% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses36 / 23
Open positions44
Markets (closed)59 / 103
History coverage43d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $9 $24 +$15 (+174%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+21%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 86¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+74%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 83¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 96¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 66¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? No 90¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Yes 69¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $1 +$2 +224%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $1 +$3 +247%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 +$9 +42%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +67%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$4 -44%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $1 $0 +25%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18m? May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $1 $0 +17%
Will "Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3" win Best Isek May 23 $1 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump visit New York in 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Major US official out by May 31? May 22 $1 +$1 +92%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 20 $1 +$7 +643%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 23, 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $3 −$2 -66%
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31? May 18 $1 $0 +49%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $3 +$1 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $9 −$2 -19%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $2 +$4 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 26h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 45¢ $1 32h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 43¢ $1 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 32h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 52¢ $1 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 36h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 83¢ $1 36h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.56 · official $126.56 (match) · 356 history records