Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x01fb…2d69 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$76 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$13
world 29% +$4
tech 25% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.6% -47.1% 50% 50% -14.7%
≤30d 2 -41.6% -47.1% 50% 50% -14.7%
≤90d 2 -41.6% -47.1% 50% 50% -14.7%
all 2 -41.6% -47.1% 50% 50% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 50% -14.7%
10% -52.2% 0% -22.9%
15% -56.8% 0% -30.3%
20% -61.1% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$100 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$641
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 55¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 74¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? Yes 57¢ 54¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $418 +$70 +17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $104 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $78 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 4h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $96 4h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $73 5h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $99 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $100 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $98 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $97 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 77¢ $101 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 24¢ $83 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $100 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $98 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $100 7h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $100 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 28¢ $103 11h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 12h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $100 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 86¢ $101 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 80¢ $97 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 82¢ $101 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 18¢ $158 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $641.33 · official $641.38 (match) · 37 history records