trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -46.9% | -52.0% | 25% | 0% | -51.6% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -28.8% | -35.6% | 33% | 17% | -32.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -39.0% | -44.8% | 29% | 14% | -41.0% |
| all | 15 | -15.2% | -23.3% | 47% | 40% | -13.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.3% | 40% | -13.2% |
| 10% | -30.6% | 27% | -21.5% |
| 15% | -37.3% | 20% | -29.1% |
| 20% | -43.5% | 13% | -36.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | Ilia Topuria | 80¢ | 80¢ | $80 | $80 | −$0 (-1%) |
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Alex Pereira | 50¢ | 50¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) | Diego Lopes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Johnny Walker | 39¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$8 | -77% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$1 | -15% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $7 | +$5 | +77% |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 04 | $5 | −$3 | -62% |
| UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car | Apr 12 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 27 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 27 | $25 | −$6 | -23% |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Feb 13 | $15 | +$3 | +20% |
| Will CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC end in a draw? | Feb 12 | $10 | +$4 | +36% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 05 | $31 | +$3 | +11% |
| Will Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? | Feb 05 | $10 | +$20 | +205% |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | Feb 01 | $10 | +$3 | +32% |