Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x01ff…c692 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$3
politics 35% −$3
world 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage82d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Apr 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $148 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 31? Apr 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 27 $142 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,234 3m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $19 11m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,179 20m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $11 28m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 45m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $13 53m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,104 59m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $783 1h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $305 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 1h
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $81 61d
Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL No 99¢ $13 61d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $67 61d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $54 61d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $27 61d
Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL No 99¢ $11 61d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $43 61d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $24 61d
Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $24 61d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 65d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 77d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 78d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $142 82d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $119 82d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 82d
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $11 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.38 · official $43.38 (match) · 50 history records