Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0202…55b0 world 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$631 (-5%) realized −$538 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%168W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$2
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$410
crypto 20% −$82
other 7% −$127
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 4 +24.2% +12.3% 75% 75% +25.8%
≤90d 156 -32.2% -38.7% 39% 29% -20.1%
all 320 -2.7% -11.9% 52% 43% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 43% -13.8%
10% -20.4% 31% -22.1%
15% -28.1% 24% -29.6%
20% -35.1% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized−$538
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses168 / 152
Open positions5
Markets (closed)320 / 325
History coverage153d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 85¢ 95¢ $300 $334 +$34 (+11%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 62¢ 16¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-73%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 39¢ 6¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-86%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $15 +$12 +81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$44 +88%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $150 +$42 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $80 +$16 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $15 +$18 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $25 +$27 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $20 −$18 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $30 +$13 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 09 $11 −$6 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10AM ET Apr 09 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 7PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 09 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3PM ET Apr 09 $6 +$2 +32%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 4PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10AM ET Apr 09 $13 −$7 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 25, 10AM ET Apr 09 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 09 $13 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1PM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4PM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 6d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $300 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 9d
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $150 9d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 43d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 44d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 45d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 45d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $215 61d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 62d
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 62d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $80 62d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 63d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 63d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 63d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 63d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 63d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 63d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 63d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 63d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.77 · official $347.77 (match) · 1120 history records