Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x0203…270d sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,148 (+20%) realized +$3,148 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%19W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 192d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$2,634
other 36% +$2,190
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.0% +26.6% 50% 50% +57.5%
≤30d 4 +29.6% +17.2% 50% 50% +69.8%
≤90d 7 +75.1% +58.4% 57% 57% +88.3%
all 56 -14.2% -22.4% 34% 34% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 34% -9.1%
10% -29.8% 34% -17.8%
15% -36.6% 34% -25.7%
20% -42.8% 30% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +108% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$164 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses19 / 37
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage192d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $102 +$183 +180%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $63 −$62 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 −$28 -90%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $189 +$242 +128%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $70 +$252 +362%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $71 +$104 +145%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 19 $200 +$232 +116%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Feb 18 $220 +$81 +37%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $160 +$340 +212%
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $4,024 +$1,727 +43%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: First Touchdown Feb 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Stefon Diggs: First Touchdown Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Stefon Diggs: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Cooper Kupp: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline Feb 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $616 −$537 -87%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 19 $448 −$448 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $280 −$280 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $480 −$180 -37%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $404 −$402 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $265 +$176 +66%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $585 −$300 -51%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $600 −$200 -33%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $540 −$120 -22%
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $895 −$490 -55%
Spread: Rams (-14.5) Jan 11 $100 +$105 +105%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $120 −$20 -17%
Spread: Rams (-10.5) Jan 11 $110 +$175 +159%
Spread: Bears (-4.5) Jan 11 $125 −$125 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5 Jan 11 $100 +$164 +164%
Spread: Rams (-6.5) Jan 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-4.5) Jan 10 $298 +$395 +133%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $530 −$530 -100%
Lions vs. Vikings Dec 26 $100 −$100 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 23 $126 −$126 -100%
49ers vs. Colts: O/U 46.5 Dec 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 22 $221 +$435 +197%
Steelers vs. Lions Dec 22 $115 −$15 -13%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 22 $100 +$168 +168%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 21 $100 +$115 +115%
Raiders vs. Texans Dec 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 37.5 Dec 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Raiders vs. Texans: O/U 39.5 Dec 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 21 $325 −$325 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 21 $370 −$350 -95%
Wizards vs. Grizzlies Dec 21 $40 +$103 +257%
Will Jake Paul walk out to Real American by Rick Derringer? Dec 20 $822 +$538 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France $3 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 73¢ $207 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $35 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $63 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $74 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 33¢ $52 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 19¢ $67 13d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $31 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $122 13d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 99¢ $321 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $70 50d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Joshua Van 100¢ $175 50d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 40¢ $71 50d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 39¢ $61 50d
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada SELL USA 100¢ $432 130d
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada BUY USA 46¢ $200 130d
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden SELL USA 100¢ $301 131d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $500 131d
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 131d
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden BUY USA 73¢ $220 131d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 32¢ $160 131d
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: First Touchdown BUY Jaxon Smith-Njigba 44¢ $53 141d
Stefon Diggs: First Touchdown BUY Stefon Diggs $20 141d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 75¢ $1,000 141d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 71¢ $1,000 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records