Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0207…cbcf sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+4%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%26W / 51L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$18
14 days+$67
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$16
sports 42% +$27
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -26.2% -33.3% 38% 29% -6.3%
≤30d 38 -17.6% -25.5% 42% 34% +1.3%
≤90d 77 -20.5% -28.1% 34% 29% -4.9%
all 77 -20.5% -28.1% 34% 29% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 29% -4.9%
10% -35.0% 27% -14.0%
15% -41.3% 23% -22.3%
20% -47.0% 22% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 51
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage64d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$28 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $72 +$5 +7%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 $0 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$7 -64%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$33 +46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$27 +130%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $21 +$24 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $57 +$14 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$6 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $18 +$6 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $2 $0 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3 +$4 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $3 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 −$1 -57%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $1 $0 -6%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 +$3 +312%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2 +$1 +70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $2 $0 +10%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $7 −$4 -51%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $29 −$6 -22%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 33m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $88 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 6h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $77 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 8h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 22h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 27h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 32h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 36h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.66 · official $54.66 (match) · 211 history records