Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x020a…4b8a politics 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$878 (+0%) realized +$878 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 131L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,437per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$138
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$130
other 35% −$151
sports 10% +$1,129
world 3% −$6
culture 2% −$6
tech 2% −$6
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 45 -10.1% -18.7% 4% 2% -10.0%
≤90d 109 -11.6% -20.0% 6% 4% -9.2%
all 155 -4.2% -13.4% 15% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 8% -9.2%
10% -21.6% 8% -17.9%
15% -29.2% 6% -25.8%
20% -36.2% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,849) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$9 · ×9.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$878
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,437
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $861 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $515 +$1 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,801 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,429 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,140 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,838 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,431 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,057 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,728 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $5,471 −$6 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,951 −$5 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $657 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,005 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,641 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,090 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $719 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $4,419 −$6 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $60 +$30 +50%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,283 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $520 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,426 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $2,484 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,459 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $859 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $861 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 40h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $351 43h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $377 43h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $377 45h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $351 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $355 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $356 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $352 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $353 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $352 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $352 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $350 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $351 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $355 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $355 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $350 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $351 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $351 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $351 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $357 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $358 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $458 8d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $458 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $558 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $559 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $549 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.28 · official $200.28 (match) · 529 history records