Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:28:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
02 0x020c…0180 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,408 (+19%) realized +$2,417 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,778per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$4,722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$3,280
world 8% −$1,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +63.7% +48.1% 100% 100% +35.5%
≤30d 3 +63.7% +48.1% 100% 100% +35.5%
≤90d 4 +22.8% +11.1% 75% 75% +17.7%
all 4 +22.8% +11.1% 75% 75% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 75% +17.7%
10% +0.5% 50% +6.4%
15% -9.3% 25% -3.9%
20% -18.1% 25% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,096 vs −$1,000 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$4,722
Realized+$2,417
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage33d
Avg bet$1,778
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 82¢ $1,576 $1,585 +$10 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,578 $1,569 −$9 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 85¢ 84¢ $1,577 $1,568 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,000 +$401 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,100 +$726 +35%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,510 +$2,162 +143%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $1,039 −$1,000 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,599 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $1,600 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $1,600 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $3,000 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $2,100 40h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,500 43h
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,039 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,722.24 · official $4,722.24 (match) · 11 history records