Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
02 0x0210…158b other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$49
other 22% +$4
world 14% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 3 -1.1% -10.6% 33% 0% -12.3%
all 4 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -11.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -20.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$49 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage93d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $467 $471 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? May 28 $344 +$5 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $67 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,003 −$49 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $542 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $467 2h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $349 25d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $344 30d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $67 30d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 30d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $429 43d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 56d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 56d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 56d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 56d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 56d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $73 56d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $249 86d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $276 86d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $529 89d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $329 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $31 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $182 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $542 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.11 · official $471.11 (match) · 40 history records