Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0214…9059 crypto 887 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$160 (-5%) realized −$161 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%515W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$89
sports 13% −$110
finance 3% −$1
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.4% -13.5% 80% 40% -21.9%
≤30d 124 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 48% -15.5%
≤90d 801 -5.1% -14.1% 57% 37% -16.6%
all 886 -3.8% -13.0% 58% 39% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 39% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 23% -23.9%
15% -28.9% 14% -31.3%
20% -35.9% 8% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses515 / 371
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)886 / 887
History coverage92d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 886 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 2566 history records