Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0216…0844 other 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,237 (-1%) realized −$1,239 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$686per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$17
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$13
politics 36% −$41
sports 12% −$1,164
culture 6% −$83
world 2% +$40
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -1.5% -10.9% 17% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 10% -10.8%
10% -19.4% 10% -19.4%
15% -27.2% 9% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,067) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$726
Realized−$1,239
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage157d
Avg bet$686
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $724 $726 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $2,614 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $385 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $580 +$1 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $348 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $2,804 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $2,221 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,325 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $6,232 −$6 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,759 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,459 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,621 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $3,606 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $219 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $446 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $452 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 26 $234 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $437 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $222 12m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $223 1h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $544 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $545 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $724 2d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,036 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,176 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,178 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 7d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,179 7d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,181 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,200 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,188 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $902 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $904 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 16d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 16d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,264 16d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,265 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $694 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $695 17d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,140 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $725.79 · official $725.79 (match) · 395 history records