Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

02
0x021a…c19d
other · 32 markets active 1h ago
7.0score
+$35 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage683d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 0 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$61
14 days−$76
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Yes 34¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 40¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Yes 64¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Yes 54¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $282 +$62 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $149 +$34 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $231 +$17 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $217 +$14 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$17 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,166 −$189 -16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,007 +$106 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $999 +$63 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,066 −$167 -16%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 02 $318 −$236 -74%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $99 −$65 -66%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,021 +$105 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,122 +$125 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,060 +$63 +6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $56 +$48 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $752 +$103 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $548 +$202 +37%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,296 −$89 -7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 28 $5 +$2 +40%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 08 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $0 $0 +2%
Iran military response by Monday? Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran military response by Sunday? Aug 04 $77 −$34 -44%
Iran military response by Friday? Aug 03 $100 +$53 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$91
world 26% +$180
sports 6% −$129
crypto 1% −$100
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $344 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $282 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $184 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $149 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $248 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 92¢ $231 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 95¢ $231 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 89¢ $217 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 90¢ $117 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 72¢ $976 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $108 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $278 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $742 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,113 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,062 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 83¢ $999 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 9d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 10d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 10d
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 10d
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.1% -0.4% 86% 43% -7.8%
≤30d 25 -11.4% -19.9% 56% 32% -8.3%
≤90d 25 -11.4% -19.9% 56% 32% -8.3%
all 32 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 34% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 34% -8.3%
10% -28.0% 22% -17.0%
15% -35.0% 19% -25.1%
20% -41.3% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records