Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x021b…fe19 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,914 (+52%) realized +$1,892 · open +$1,022
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,411per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2,829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$1,007
world 4% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -50.5% -55.2% 0% 0% -20.5%
all 2 -50.5% -55.2% 0% 0% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.2% 0% -20.5%
10% -59.5% 0% -28.1%
15% -63.4% 0% -35.0%
20% -67.0% 0% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$107 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$2,829
Realized+$1,892
Unrealized+$1,022
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,411
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $1,207 $2,454 +$1,247 (+103%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $600 $375 −$225 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,568 −$15 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Apr 07 $199 −$199 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $865 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $2,994 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $773 41d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $772 41d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $728 46d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $72 46d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $781 46d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,568 128d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,610 128d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $66 128d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 128d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $199 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,828.86 · official $2,828.86 (match) · 145 history records