Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
02 0x021b…3c73 sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 679d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+3%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%48W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$24
sports 22% −$182
other 21% +$21
politics 2% −$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 50% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 50% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 50% -9.7%
all 114 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 32% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 32% -14.1%
10% -25.9% 28% -22.3%
15% -33.0% 24% -29.8%
20% -39.6% 22% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

679d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses48 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage679d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$29 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $244 +$62 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $308 +$161 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$9 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $155 +$147 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$7 +131%
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Oct 04 $84 −$84 -100%
Seahawks vs. Lions Oct 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Titans vs. Dolphins Sep 30 $5 $0 -2%
Ravens vs. Bills Sep 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Packers vs. Vikings Sep 30 $5 +$6 +117%
Raiders vs. Browns Sep 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Cardinals vs. Commanders Sep 30 $5 +$8 +156%
Buccaneers vs. Eagles Sep 30 $10 +$12 +115%
Will Georgia beat Alabama? Sep 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Bears vs. Rams Sep 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Penn St. beat Illinois? Sep 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UCF beat Colorado? Sep 28 $5 +$24 +488%
Bengals vs. Commanders Sep 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Falcons vs. Chiefs Sep 23 $31 +$23 +73%
Cardinals vs. Lions Sep 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Seahawks vs. Dolphins Sep 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Travis Kelce be the top Fantasy Tight End? Sep 23 $11 −$9 -78%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? Sep 23 $5 −$3 -70%
Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South? Sep 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Wide Reciever? Sep 23 $10 $0 +2%
Rams vs. 49ers Sep 23 $6 +$16 +284%
Saints vs. Eagles Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Steelers vs. Chargers Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Jets vs. Patriots Sep 20 $3 −$3 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $41 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 317 history records