Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
02 0x0220…945e world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$6
other 20% +$2
finance 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
politics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 64% 7% -8.4%
all 32 +0.4% -9.2% 72% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -8.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×8.49 per $1 lost it wins $8.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage458d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $11 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 +$7 +22%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $28 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $58 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $12 $0 +3%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $12 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $11 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 25 $2 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $6 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $6 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $8 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $20 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $28 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $38 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $38 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $34 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $34 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $19 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $18 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $31 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.40 · official $37.40 (match) · 87 history records