Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x0220…05fb crypto 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-4%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%55W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$18
other 11% −$16
sports 6% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 44% -17.7%
≤30d 106 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 44% -17.7%
≤90d 106 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 44% -17.7%
all 106 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 44% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 44% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 44% -25.6%
15% -33.3% 37% -32.8%
20% -39.8% 27% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses55 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records