Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
02 0x0225…d78e other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$214 (+24%) realized +$219 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$129
14 days+$221
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$166
sports 31% +$77
crypto 9% −$21
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +35.0% +22.2% 50% 50% +15.3%
≤30d 55 +26.3% +14.2% 42% 42% +14.5%
≤90d 55 +26.3% +14.2% 42% 42% +14.5%
all 55 +26.3% +14.2% 42% 42% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 42% +14.5%
10% +3.3% 42% +3.6%
15% -6.7% 42% -6.4%
20% -15.8% 38% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$11 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$219
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage14d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 76¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+56%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-45%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $30 +$25 +83%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$27 +90%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$24 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$52 +510%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$25 +250%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 24 $10 +$15 +144%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$23 +221%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +58%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +388%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$8 +163%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$19 +62%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$29 +286%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +274%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 +$16 +106%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 +$57 +506%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 37m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 45m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $10 25h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 40¢ $10 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.08 · official $86.05 (match) · 98 history records