Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x0229…03cb crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+12%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$5
other 10% $0
world 7% −$1
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 33% +20.1%
≤30d 15 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 33% +20.1%
≤90d 15 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 33% +20.1%
all 15 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 33% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 33% +20.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 27% +8.6%
15% -23.1% 27% -1.9%
20% -30.6% 20% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 80¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$10 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.68 · official $6.76 (match) · 46 history records