Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
02 0x022a…2857 sports 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%21W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$12
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$9
politics 26% +$36
other 26% −$57
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$6
culture 3% −$5
tech 3% −$6
world 3% −$4
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 87 +0.0% -9.5% 11% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 2% -9.6%
all 245 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses21 / 224
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage657d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $55 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 22 $43 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 21 $54 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $61 −$1 -2%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 19 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 18 $150 −$2 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $55 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $99 +$15 +15%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $95 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $46 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $93 −$1 -2%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $52 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 08 $56 −$3 -5%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $123 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $57 8h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $44 9h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 17h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $55 17h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $55 23h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $43 24h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $43 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $54 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $54 43h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $58 43h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $59 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $64 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $29 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $64 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $65 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $60 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.01 · official $59.01 (match) · 901 history records