Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x022a…c554 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%23W / 14L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$4
other 29% +$1
politics 5% +$1
sports 3% +$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +1.4% -8.2% 55% 5% -8.9%
all 37 +14.9% +3.9% 62% 8% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 8% -7.2%
10% -6.0% 5% -16.1%
15% -15.1% 3% -24.2%
20% -23.4% 3% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.04 per $1 lost it wins $34.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses23 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage481d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $31 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $30 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $29 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $1 $0 +25%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 09 $3 +$16 +579%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $11 +$1 +7%
X allowed to operate in China before May? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 08 $1 $0 -10%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $34 35h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $15 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 50¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $25 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $31 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $31 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $21 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $18 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records