Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

02 0x022b…d2f6 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$106 (+14%) realized +$106 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +317% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +248% what you keep after slip

Net edge+248%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$184per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+277.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+317.1%	+277.4%	100%	50%	+11.0%
≤30d	4	+317.1%	+277.4%	100%	50%	+11.0%
≤90d	4	+317.1%	+277.4%	100%	50%	+11.0%
all	4	+317.1%	+277.4%	100%	50%	+11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+277.4%	50%	+11.0%
10%	+241.3%	50%	+0.4%
15%	+208.3%	50%	-9.3%
20%	+178.1%	25%	-18.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +317% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$106

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$184

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$301	+$19	+6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 23	$54	+$5	+10%
Senegal to win the second half?	Jun 23	$152	+$3	+2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$228	+$104	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	94¢	$301	1h
Senegal to win the second half?	SELL No	97¢	$33	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	62¢	$23	1h
Senegal to win the second half?	SELL No	97¢	$48	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	39¢	$22	1h
Senegal to win the second half?	SELL No	97¢	$73	1h
Senegal to win the second half?	BUY No	95¢	$152	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	52¢	$30	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$228	10h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records