Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x022d…66d5 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$28 (-9%) realized −$19 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$89
sports 28% −$80
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +62.6% +47.1% 78% 67% +0.8%
≤30d 9 +62.6% +47.1% 78% 67% +0.8%
≤90d 9 +62.6% +47.1% 78% 67% +0.8%
all 9 +62.6% +47.1% 78% 67% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.1% 67% +0.8%
10% +33.0% 67% -8.9%
15% +20.2% 67% -17.7%
20% +8.4% 56% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$42 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Algeria leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 26¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$39 +92%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 +$6 +49%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$10 +98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $17 +$33 +188%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +146%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 30m
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 31m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end i BUY 8¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $82 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 23h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY 2¢ $1 23h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 24h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 24h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.57 · official $122.57 (match) · 43 history records