Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
02 0x022f…3393 crypto 514 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+2%) realized +$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate97%497W / 17L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$76
14 days+$149
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$342
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 7% -5.4%
≤30d 163 +3.6% -6.3% 99% 7% -6.3%
≤90d 514 +2.3% -7.5% 97% 8% -7.5%
all 514 +2.3% -7.5% 97% 8% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 8% -7.5%
10% -16.3% 1% -16.3%
15% -24.4% 0% -24.4%
20% -31.8% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses497 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)514 / 514
History coverage86d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 514 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $23 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $17 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $27 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1176 history records