Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
02 0x0231…f72b crypto 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,093 (-10%) realized −$4,013 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%93W / 105L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$576
14 days+$322
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$3,601
sports 41% −$333
other 4% −$493
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 22 +73.4% +56.9% 45% 41% -6.3%
≤90d 113 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 42% -20.8%
all 198 -6.1% -15.1% 47% 41% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 41% -19.7%
10% -23.2% 37% -27.4%
15% -30.6% 29% -34.4%
20% -37.4% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$135 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$1,535
Realized−$4,013
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses93 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions5
Markets (closed)198 / 203
History coverage109d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $500 $481 −$19 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $500 $458 −$42 (-8%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $178 −$176 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $306 +$603 +197%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$504 +1770%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $358 −$282 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $371 −$320 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,112 −$494 -44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $305 −$170 -56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,276 +$6 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $244 +$355 +145%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $258 +$352 +136%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $240 −$240 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $899 +$153 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $841 +$305 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $328 +$265 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $157 +$172 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $137 −$132 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $49 +$90 +185%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 15 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 13 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 13 $3 +$3 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 13 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 13 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 13 $28 +$25 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 09 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 09 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 06 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 06 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 06 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 30 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 30 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 30 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 30 $107 +$39 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 30 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 30 $126 +$42 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 30 $68 +$56 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 30 $48 +$24 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 30 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 30 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 23 $645 −$610 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 23 $602 +$43 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $307 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $178 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $306 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $28 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $371 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $58 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $618 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1,112 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $135 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $30 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $100 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $1,002 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $50 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $2 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $4 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $94 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,276 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $599 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $609 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,534.97 · official $1,534.97 (match) · 792 history records