Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
02 0x0235…9ebf sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+10%) realized +$13 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$17
other 31% +$6
weather 7% +$1
tech 7% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.6% +0.9% 57% 57% +1.5%
≤30d 14 +11.6% +0.9% 57% 57% +1.5%
≤90d 14 +11.6% +0.9% 57% 57% +1.5%
all 14 +11.6% +0.9% 57% 57% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 57% +1.5%
10% -8.7% 43% -8.3%
15% -17.5% 29% -17.1%
20% -25.6% 21% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? No 78¢ 85¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 86¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 34¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$21 +414%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $10 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $5 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 47¢ $5 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $5 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $5 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 33h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.05 · official $47.05 (match) · 33 history records