Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
02 0x0237…891a crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$12
sports 35% +$54
other 12% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% +11.9%
≤30d 13 -11.5% -20.0% 46% 46% -6.6%
≤90d 13 -11.5% -20.0% 46% 46% -6.6%
all 31 -5.4% -14.4% 65% 55% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 55% -9.1%
10% -22.6% 29% -17.8%
15% -30.1% 23% -25.7%
20% -37.0% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage460d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $91 $96 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $48 +$45 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $21 +$26 +123%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $14 +$7 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $7 −$2 -26%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 04 $41 −$34 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $22 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 19 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 19 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 19 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 19 $4 +$1 +42%
Maple Leafs vs. Predators Mar 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Nets vs. Pacers Mar 22 $19 +$4 +22%
Troy vs. Kentucky Mar 22 $16 +$3 +16%
Arkansas vs. Kansas Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah State vs. UCLA Mar 21 $2 +$1 +47%
Nets vs. Pacers Mar 21 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Mar 20 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 82¢ $92 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $92 5h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $48 8h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $48 8h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $21 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $22 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $14 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 34h
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 35h
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 19d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? SELL No 6¢ $7 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 28d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY No 35¢ $41 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $26 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? SELL Yes 98¢ $23 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? BUY Yes 92¢ $22 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.16 · official $95.99 (match) · 69 history records